Gold market analysis

"Gold Price Falls Below 50-Day Moving Average, Trend Remains Weak" 27/6 10:19 am Finalized 

Yesterday, the US Department of Commerce released the final value of the first-quarter GDP. After annualization, it contracted by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, a larger decline than the expected 0.2%. The biggest drag on GDP was foreign trade, which reduced GDP by 4.61 percentage points. The largest contributor to GDP was private investment, which increased GDP by 3.9 percentage points. Government spending slightly reduced GDP by 0.1 percentage points, and personal consumption only increased GDP by 0.31 percentage points. It is obvious that this was caused by Trump's preparation to implement reciprocal tariffs. 

US durable goods orders post biggest increase in over a decade 

However, US durable goods orders rose by 16.4% month-on-month in May, the largest increase since July 2014. Orders for transportation equipment rose by 48.3%, while orders for capital goods increased by 48%. Non-defense and defense orders rose by 49.4% and 38.7% respectively. Excluding defense orders, orders rose by 15.5% month-on-month. New orders excluding transportation items rose by 0.5% month-on-month. A key indicator reflecting business spending, orders excluding defense and aircraft, rose by 1.7% month-on-month, far exceeding expectations of 0.1%. Yesterday, spot gold prices rose repeatedly after the opening of the European market, reaching a high of $3,350. After that, they fluctuated and fell back. After the release of the US data, spot gold prices dropped sharply from the $3,344 level, hitting a low of $3,310 before gradually recovering. However, they were blocked at the $3,333 level. From the hourly chart, it can be seen that gold prices fell below the low point of Wednesday this week, breaking the pattern of each wave being higher than the previous one since June 24. Eventually, they closed below the 50-day SMA ($3,324.5), the first time since January 8 this year to close below this line, sending a medium-term bearish signal. 

Gold prices may break through $3,300 again. 

If gold fails to return above this line today with a strong two-day reversal pattern, it is likely to test lower levels further. Currently, the hourly chart shows a narrowing triangle formation. The first short-term target for a decline is $3,288. If it breaks above the downtrend line, the first resistance is at the overlap of the 20-day and 50-day SMAs at $3,329. Further upward, the main resistance is at $3,357, while $3,371 remains a key resistance in the medium term. Yesterday, gold rose to a high of $3,350.25, so the Fibonacci 100% extension level mentioned yesterday becomes $3,252.29. 

Silver performed relatively strongly. 

On the contrary, silver has performed relatively strongly. The silver price has remained above the 20-day SMA (36.16). From the hourly chart, it can be seen that there is strong support at $36.24, and another strong support level is at $36.36. Unless the silver price closes below this level on the hourly chart, it is expected to challenge yesterday's high of $36.83. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Mingde Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu