Weekly

Re-ignite the interest rate cut by half a percentage point before the interest rate discussion. I hope that the price of gold will hit the biggest weekly increase in nearly four years. Last week, the US dollar fell again, and inflation is no longer a threat. The market is looking forward to the Fed's interest rate reduction meeting this week. In addition to the official interest rate reduction period, it is even more likely to start cutting interest rates sharply. The probability of reducing interest rates by half a percentage point this week has increased from 20% to nearly 50%, and it is expected to reduce interest rates by as much as one percentage point before the end of the year. That is, there will be room for at least one interest rate reduction by half a percentage point in the remaining three meetings this year, which will undoubtedly add insult to injury to the weakening US dollar.

In the middle of the week, the CPI and PPI of the United States were 2.5% and 1.7% respectively, which were lower than expected. The market was no longer afraid that the price level would deteriorate again, while the European Central Bank cut interest rates, which also worried the market that the global economy was at risk of weakening. Therefore, investors believed that the United States, as the locomotive of the global economy, must speed up interest rate cuts to cope with the risk of global economic downturn. Since Thursday night, the probability of interest rate futures cutting by half a percentage point from the Federal Reserve in September has risen sharply, and the price of gold quickly broke through the historical high. On Friday, the

Looking forward to this week, the interest rate meeting will definitely be the focus of the market. If the interest rate is reduced by half a percentage point, it will help the gold price to develop in the direction of 2600. However, even if it is only reduced by 0.25 percentage point, we should pay attention to the bitmap. Earlier, the market expectation and bitmap tend to gradually reduce interest rates. However, if this bitmap shows that the interest rate will be reduced more sharply at the end of the year, even in 2025, it will hopefully extend the room for the gold price to rise. We need to pay attention to the orientation of the bitmap of directors and the market situation.