Weekly

The gold price fluctuated at a high level, and the market bet that the Fed needs to speed up the rate cut.

2024-08-05

Last week was a super economic week, with sharp fluctuations in the gold stock exchange market and sudden changes in the market trend. At the beginning of the week, investors were patiently waiting for the Federal Reserve to discuss interest rates and weekend non-agricultural data. However, recently, technology stocks retreated, and the market had already expected the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, which caused the carry trade, which had been borrowing Japanese yen to buy US stocks, to open its positions, and the panic index soared, which made the market situation very volatile. The price of gold rose above 2,400 in the early stage, bearing the news that Hamas leader Chana was killed by the attack.

After the Fed discussed the interest rate, it announced after the meeting that it revised the wording of inflation and the labor market, which meant that the interest rate had reached a critical point, the interest rate would change at the next meeting, and gold would hit upward again until the United States announced that the number of non-agricultural jobs only increased by 114,000, and the price of gold rose to a weekly high of 2,477.61, which was just one step away from the historical high.

However, after the interest rate of gold was discussed, the high level was repeated. Although investors expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, they were also worried about the recession in the United States. Both the United States and the Nikkei index suffered a small stock market crash, and carry trade opened its position, and the panic index rose to 25, which made the market capital lack liquidity, and gold also quickly fell back from the high level.

According to the experience of living, every time there is a small stock market crash and carry trade's opening, especially the retreat of technology stocks, the gold market will be under pressure first, because investors need to make a profit first and make up for the stock market, which leads to the pressure of closing gold. However, when the opening tide is completed every time, the price of gold can regain its momentum and hit a new high, so investors can also seize every opportunity of retreat to absorb it.

After a week of heavy economic news, there are not many important economies this week. The more important thing is the PMI index on Monday. The market is betting that the Fed needs to cut interest rates more quickly. Interest rate futures show that the interest rate cut in September is as fast as half a percentage point to nearly 70%, which will support the gold to hit a high level again. However, it is believed that the CARRY TRADE opening tide will still bring violent fluctuations to the gold stock exchange market in the short term. The market situation is not good. Let's refer to each other.



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