Weekly

After the gold retreated, it climbed again, and the tension in the Middle East supported the gold price to rise for five weeks. The price of gold has experienced the longest continuous increase since January 2023, with a total increase of about $250 in five weeks, an increase of more than 10%. Last weekend, Iran directly retaliated against Israel for the first time. The situation was tense over the weekend, which caused the gold price to jump and climb at the beginning of the week. However, as the United States did not support Israel's counterattack and Iran did not have any further war plans, the gold price fell back again and fell below the low level of the previous week. However, after the retreat, the buying actively absorbed and kept the gold price at the $2,300 mark. Recently, the US dollar and gold rarely rose simultaneously. Fed officials responded to the earlier rebound in inflation and good economic data, and released hawkish remarks, which made the US dollar rise to 106 level. Many Asian currencies were weak, but the overall price of gold did not fall. Every time they retreated, they immediately stabilized. On Friday, they even returned to Israel and regained the 2400 mark. The situation in the Middle East can be described as hot in the near future, and any accidental fire will also make funds flow into the gold market to avoid risks. Coupled with the central bank's active buying, it seems that there is an invisible hand to support the market, so that gold ignores the strength of the US dollar and maintains a pattern of big gains and small returns. Looking ahead to this week, a number of economic data will be released. If it shows that the US economy is booming, it will continue to hit the beginning of the Fed's interest rate reduction cycle. At present, interest rate futures have shown that the chance of interest rate reduction in September has dropped to 67%. The PCE on the weekend is the focus of the whole week. Last week, CPI suppressed the price of gold to retreat to around 2320. If inflation continues to be high, even though it may not be able to reverse the upward trend of gold, there will be a deeper retreat, which will make the market have a more ideal absorption position. The market situation is a bit different, so let's refer to each other.