Weekly

May 1st

Still in the process of consolidation

The market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike this week. The turmoil of the First Republic Bank's massive loss of deposits has revived market concerns, easing the pressure on Federal Reserve officials. In addition, the core personal consumption expenditure that the authorities are focusing on has not increased further. The market predicts that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 points in May, as the last rate hike in this cycle and has the opportunity to start cutting interest rates this year. In such a situation, the US dollar will weaken, fueling gold prices. Gold prices have been trading sideways for several days, but still cannot move out of the volatile zone between 1970 and 2020. The gold market is waiting for a chemotactic, and this week's US non farm data and the Federal Reserve can ignite gold price momentum at any time. Today, the suggested range is between 1974 US dollars and 1992 US dollars.

Chemotactic agent

The threat of a wave of banking failures in the United States remains steadfast, and the trend of Hong Kong stocks fluctuates with the US stock market. The Hong Kong stock market closed at 19840 points on Friday, but there was a fierce debate between the bullish and bearish sides on the 250 day moving average. The Hang Seng Index fell first and then rose this week, but the late rise still failed to recover from its early decline. In one week, the Hang Seng Index fell 181 points or 0.9%.

Deutsche Bank released its first quarter results of this year yesterday, with its profit increasing by 9% year on year, which was higher than the market expectation. However, the euro zone consumer confidence index released later did not bring alarm to the market. The latest figure was negative 17.5, which was in line with the market expectation. The negative interest consumption of the First Republic Bank of the United States disrupted the rise of the European stock market. The three major European stock markets developed separately in a week. The German DAX index rose by 0. 5% in a week 26%, the CAC index in Paris, France, hit a new high and then softened, falling 1.13%, while the FTSE 100 index in the UK fell 0.55%.

Even though the media reported that the First Republic Bank in financial distress would be taken over or sold by the American State Deposit Insurance Corporation, the economic data raised market concerns. The personal expenditure of the United States in March remained unchanged, slightly better than the expected decline of 0.1%. The core personal consumption expenditure price index, which the Federal Reserve attaches great importance to, rose 0.3% month on month for two consecutive months. In addition to the sharp rise of the purchasing manager index, the market confirmed that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates by 0.25% next week. The three major stock markets on Wall Street saw their respective developments last week, with the Dow Jones Index rising 2.04%. High tech stocks were severely affected by interest rate hikes, with the Standard&Poor's 500 Index rising 0.33% and the Nasdaq Composite Index falling 0.54%.

The gold market still lacked direction last week, unable to break out of the daily rise and fall trend, and continued to consolidate around $2000. Basically, the market is gradually digesting the news that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by another 25 points in May. Last Friday, there was an inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve was extremely concerned about, which is the core personal consumption expenditure price index, which was flat compared to the previous month and slightly converged on an annual basis. Gold prices reached a high of $2009.5 last week, a low of $1974.2, and finally closed at $1989.5, rising by $6.6 in a week.

For detailed analysis and operational suggestions, please feel free to join the CLICK group at the following link and inquire with the administrator
https://t.me/mingtak Service Content