Financial encyclopedia

The pace of raising interest rates this year has come to an end for the time being, but the sequelae are slowly showing symptoms, as evidenced by the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank, SVB).

More and more economists point out that there will be an economic recession in the United States in 2023, but it will be a wave of "rich recession", or "white-collar recession", that is, affected by the economy

The wealthier people will be hit harder by the recession. The term "rich recession" means that the rich in the United States will suffer in the future economic downturn.

More influence. Why is this strange phenomenon? It turns out that inflation in the United States is high at present, and blue-collar jobs are more popular after the epidemic. At the same time, the financial market is complicated and the stock price is low.

Fluctuations make the investment income of the rich fall. On the contrary, the asset income of the poor has increased because of the earlier relief and preferential policies of the government.

According to the statistics of the Federal Reserve, the net assets of the bottom fifth households in the United States in the third quarter of last year increased by 42% compared with 2009, and also increased by 17% compared with the end of 2021. mutually

The net assets of the top fifth of anti-American families in the third quarter of last year only increased by 22% compared with 2009 before the outbreak of the epidemic, and even decreased by 7.1% compared with the end of 2021.

Reflect the impact of the stock market decline. The salary growth of wealthy people is also slow, with the annual salary growth rate of the top quarter being only 4.8%, and the salary of the bottom quarter in the same period.

The annual growth rate is 7.4%. Coupled with the wave of layoffs in the past six months, most of them are concentrated in well-paid and well-known technology companies. The median salary of Meta employees in 2021 is 29.5.

$10,000, Twitter employees are $232,600. As technology giants only account for 2% of all private sector jobs, even if layoffs are repeated, the overall employment will be affected.

The sound is limited. Most of the industries that are still robbing people are labor-intensive middle-and low-income workers, such as the leisure and lodging industry, which still lacks 980,000 manpower. medical care

Although the industry has returned to the pre-epidemic level, due to the aging population, 1.1 million job vacancies still need to be filled, and the salary of low-skilled jobs is recovering the backward growth rate before the epidemic.

The average hourly wage of McDonald's employees in the United States has soared from $11 two years ago to $15, which is enough to offset the rising prices. As a result, enterprises are faced with employee salaries at the same time.

The multiple rising costs of raw materials and rents will inevitably lead to price increases, which will shift the costs to consumers, thus creating an upward spiral. Therefore, inflation will still fall sharply.

There is a certain difficulty. Economists point out that it is rare for low-income people to become a sought-after labor force in a weak economic environment, which will improve their finances without experience.

Seriously unemployed. As for the laid-off rich, in addition to the decrease in income, the decline in the stock market has led to asset recession, but because they have enough foundation, they should be able to survive this recession.

Low tide!