Weekly

Insufficient employment, slowing corporate profits

2020-05-11

On Friday, trade representatives from China and the United States spoke, saying that the two sides agreed to strengthen macroeconomic and public health cooperation and strive to create favorable atmosphere and conditions for the implementation of the first phase of the Sino-US economic and trade agreement.

They also agreed to continue to maintain communication and coordination.

The market hopes that Sino-US trade tensions will not escalate for the time being, which will benefit high-risk market products. The Hang Seng Index rose 250 on the same day.

The U.S. Department of Labor announced on Friday that the number of non-farm payrolls in April 2020 fell by 20.5 million, the worst on record, but better than the market forecast of 22 million.

Unemployment soared 10.3 percentage points to 14.7 percent on a monthly basis, the biggest drop since the Great Depression and less than the 16 percent expected by the market.

As the economic data was better than the market expectation and the market had already prepared for it, the unprecedented number did not make a bigger impact. Instead, S&P rose 1.7% to 2,929.

S&P has risen 30% from its low six weeks ago when companies failed to provide relative profits.

U.S. President Trump revealed in an interview with Khodorkovsky News that in the event of a coronavirus outbreak, some states, including California, may reopen faster.

Commenting on the non-farm employment report, he said: "All the lost jobs will come back soon."

Gold price is under pressure, and gold has retreated from its high level of 1724 before the non-agricultural figure was released. It is expected that the better figure will impact gold's safe-haven position and eventually fall to 1700, which is the previous level of good and weak competition.

Gold is still promising in the medium and long term, but investors' optimism at this stage will not be conducive to the trend of gold price. It is expected that the market will still be volatile this week.

However, the market did not respond to the above remarks, with the US dollar index unchanged at 99.83.

A White House spokesman revealed that President Trump and Saudi King Salman had a conference call and both sides agreed on the importance of maintaining stability in the global energy market.

Earlier, it was said that Saudi Arabia would raise the price of crude oil exports.  Saudi Arabia is the most influential member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. It often keeps its share by price advantage.

Taking the initiative to raise oil prices means being willing to cut production more cooperatively.

Following the US President's hint last Thursday that he agreed to fully lift the ban to stimulate the economy, British Prime Minister Johnson also announced the gradual lifting of the ban on Friday.

International oil prices rose 5% to close at US$ 30.97 a barrel on Friday as supply fell and demand for crude oil was stimulated by the unsealing of economies around the world.

Oil prices in new york also rose 5% to US$ 24.74 a barrel, a 25% weekly increase.  Looking forward to the trend of oil price, there is still a good prospect.

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