Gold market analysis

Gold prices may rebound as the yen surges 30/6/2026 10:55 Completed  
Last Friday's gold price rebound failed to reach even $4,100, coming in weaker than expected, leading to continued declines. Originally anticipated to briefly peak and then fall today, gold is now more likely to hit a short-term bottom and recover. This morning, gold prices plunged sharply during early Asian trading, with spot gold dropping from $4,015 to $3,943 before slightly recovering. The sudden drop was unrelated to U.S.-Iran talks but instead triggered by a sharp rise in the dollar against the yen, which broke through key resistance at 162, peaking at 162.39—the lowest level in 40 years—dragging down gold prices. 

Japan's Finance Minister, Katsuya Takahashi, stated that Japan reaffirms its readiness to respond appropriately to market movements and stands prepared to take necessary actions when needed, though she declined to comment on specific yen exchange rate levels. This signals the Bank of Japan's willingness to intervene in the currency market to stem the yen's decline, potentially at the opening of European markets today, the close of New York trading, or at the start of Tokyo trading tomorrow. A sharp rise in the yen due to central bank intervention could also drive gold prices significantly higher. 

Although gold prices have fallen below the strong Gann square 90-degree support at $4,010 and the psychological level of $4,000, the price has shifted from an expected top followed by a decline to a rebound after touching resistance. On the hourly chart, the RSI has dropped to 11, suggesting a potential double-bottom formation with the June 25 low. Meanwhile, on the daily chart, the price remains in divergence with the RSI, indicating limited downside risk at current levels. On the other hand, investors should note that the U.S. non-farm employment report for June will be released earlier than usual this Thursday. The market may use this as an opportunity to pressure gold prices downward before the data release, then trigger a sharp rebound based on the employment figures. Therefore, even if gold fails to recover quickly in the short term, it is likely to remain range-bound at lower levels with sideways fluctuations. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.