Gold market analysis

Gold price briefly held below $4,110  
June 29, 2026, 11:12 AM  

Although renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran initially triggered a gap-up in crude oil prices during early Asian trading today, prices failed to break above $71 and soon retreated to hover around the $70 level. Gold prices did not experience a sharp decline as a result, maintaining their upward trend since June 24. The latest conflict stems from Iran's claim that the U.S.-Iran agreement granted it sole jurisdiction over the Strait of Hormuz; however, with ships now rerouting through Omani waters, Iran feels deprived of potential benefits. As a result, Iran recently attacked a vessel attempting to transit the strait along the Omani coast. Currently, both sides have announced a temporary halt to hostilities and are returning to the negotiating table. The United States stated that both parties will temporarily cease fire, allowing free passage for vessels while technical talks continue. 

Although gold prices initially plunged sharply in early Asian trading on Friday, dipping as low as $3,983.32, they steadily recovered and rose to a high of $4,096.06 ahead of the London close. However, after briefly testing the $4,100 level again at the end of New York trading, prices pulled back. On the hourly chart, gold broke above the descending trendline resistance formed since June 18, and also surpassed both the 20SMA (currently around $4,065) and the 50SMA (currently around $4,029). Nevertheless, the total rebound has not yet reached the 38.2% retracement level of the downward wave that began on June 18. 

Currently, it is expected that gold prices will face resistance near the 38.2% retracement level at $4,120.77, which is extremely close to the June 19 low of $4,121.86. Additionally, $4,110 lies at the 135-degree angle of Gann's square, forming a secondary resistance. Therefore, the previous peak at $4,044 is still likely to provide support, and after a brief consolidation, gold prices are expected to test the $4,210 level at the 180-degree angle. The fact that gold has shown no reaction to renewed military tensions between the U.S. and Iran indicates that the key driver for gold has shifted toward interest rate trends, rather than lingering concerns over the Strait of Hormuz passage. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.