Weekly

The US dollar was favored by investors in the middle of last week, and the US dollar index pointed directly at the 94 mark. In the latest World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund raised its global economic forecast for the whole year to shrink by 4.4%.

Compared with the forecast in June this year, it is raised by 0.8%, but the forecast of economic growth next year is lowered to 5.2%, which is 0.2% lower than the previous forecast. Put in the economic forecast of advanced economies,

The International Monetary Fund estimates that the economies of the United States and the Eurozone will contract by 4.3% and 8.3% respectively this year, and will grow by 3.1% and 5.2% respectively next year. The British economy is estimated to contract by 9.8% this year,

It will rebound by 5.9% next year; The report shows the fact that the U.S. economy is superior to Europe in the short term, with the dollar rising while the pound and euro falling.

European Central Bank President Lagarde said at the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund last week that he noticed that many European countries have recently adopted new epidemic prevention measures to control the COVID-19 epidemic.

This offset the European Central Bank's 1.35 trillion euro stimulus package, and called on governments to continue to provide financial support to help the economy recover from the new outbreak.

And he finally said that the central bank will continue to provide support. The market predicted that the European Central Bank might increase its emergency asset purchase program before the end of the year, which made investors reduce their holdings of euros to avoid risks.

Australian Federal Reserve Chairman Lowe said last Wednesday that Australia's economy is recovering, but employment data is fragile, and household income is likely to fall in the fourth quarter of this year.

He said that we can't rely on the previous interest rate policy to stimulate inflation. The Reserve Bank of Australia may cut the interest rate to 0.1%, and is also considering the benefits of buying longer-term government bonds and quantitative easing.

The news caused the Australian 10-year bond yield to drop by 7 basis points and affected the Australian dollar to drop sharply against the US dollar. Last week, Speaker of the US House of Representatives Pelosi vetoed a new epidemic mitigation plan proposed by the Trump administration.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Nuchin said that before the election, due to the differences between the two major parties in the United States, it was difficult to make progress in the short term, and Pelosi also set a dead line for negotiations with the White House against customers.

Tuesday is the deadline for negotiations, otherwise the new stimulus bill agreement cannot be reached before the general election.

The gold price was frustrated by the strengthening of the US dollar last week, and central banks around the world had the opportunity to cut interest rates and increase quantitative easing policies. The risk of hard Brexit made investors tend to hold US dollars.

In addition, with only three weeks left in the US election, investors regard the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, and the appreciation of the US dollar directly hits the gold market. The gold price began to fall at last week's high of 1926 US dollars per ounce.

The lowest price was $1,882 per ounce, and it closed at $1,889 per ounce, with a total drop of $27 a week. The price of gold has not yet fallen below the upward trend line, and it was supported in 1880 in the short term.

And make a convergence triangle with the descending line, and are seeking breakthrough opportunities.

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