Gold market analysis

"Gold Prices Aim to Challenge Historical Highs" 28/11/2025 10:16 Finalized 

Gold prices rose strongly in the Asian market this morning, explaining the recent unusually volatile movements - the ups and downs before a major breakthrough. This morning, the spot gold price opened slightly higher at $4,160 and continued to rise, indicating that this is not a strong resistance level but an important short-term support level. From the hourly chart, gold prices have shown a clear narrowing triangle since the opening of the New York market on Wednesday until the sharp upward break this morning, reflecting that both bulls and bears have entered a close combat zone. Of course, the bulls are clearly the dominant force, and the narrowing triangle is likely just a reflection of the bulls accumulating strength before further pushing up the gold price. 

Gold prices broke above the descending trend line of the triangle. 

This morning, the highest price of gold was temporarily seen at $4,193.07. However, the current cumulative increase is approximately $35, indicating a high possibility that gold will challenge $4,210. There is even a chance that it could reach the high of $4,245 set on November 13. From the daily chart, gold has broken through the descending trend line of the narrowing triangle. If there is no double-day reversal or strong bearish signal such as a bearish engulfing pattern in the next one to two trading days, gold is expected to consolidate above $4,200 and then challenge $4,245. 

Moreover, it is unknown whether any investors have noticed that the current spot gold price has broken through the double top neckline of $4,186 formed on the hourly chart before the sharp decline on October 21. This level is also expected to become an important support level in the short term. A return above this level may indicate that gold is determined to challenge its historical high, with the main driving force being the market's renewed belief that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December has increased. 

$4,160 becomes a key short-term support level. 

In other words, the recent strength in gold prices is a pre-emptive response to the interest rate cut. Therefore, whether the gold price fails or succeeds in challenging the historical high, there is a possibility that a major double top will form around $4,400 and then fall back. However, this will depend on the Federal Reserve's assessment of the US economic performance and inflation development in the coming year. Additionally, Powell will step down in May next year, and a dovish candidate is expected to take over as the chairperson. The market has doubts about the independence of the Federal Reserve, and how this will be reflected in the gold price is another story. 

After touching $4,193.7, gold prices quickly retreated but still remained above the 20SMA on the 5-minute chart ($4,187). If it breaks below this level, the 50SMA ($4,172.5) is expected to offer stronger support. Therefore, it is believed that $4,160 has become the intraday bottom for gold prices, and the top of the sideways range since Wednesday ($4,173.26) is also a strong support level. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.