Gold market analysis

"Gold Price Stabilizes at 4,200, Outlook Positive" 2/12/2025 10:10 Completed 

Yesterday, the spot gold price rose to $4,264.68 in the early morning in New York but then lost momentum and dropped sharply, hitting a low of $4,219.88 within an hour. It gradually recovered half of its losses but fell again after reaching a high of $4,244.77. Today, it plunged in the early Asian session but managed to hold above $4,200, rebounding from a low of $4,200.75 and remaining above $4,210 for the time being. 

From the hourly chart, it can be seen that the gold price formed a small double top at the levels of $4,256 and $4,264 yesterday, and it was in a double top divergence with the 9RSI. After breaking below the 20SMA (currently around $4,237.9), multiple rebounds failed to close above this line. This morning, it sharply dropped and tested the 50SMA (currently around $4,212.2). This line has been an important support level for the gold price since the new round of upward trend began on November 24th. Once it is breached, the gold price is expected to adjust 50% of the rise in this period, to around $4,152.5, before it can resume its upward trend. 

The 50SMA on the hourly chart provides strong support. 

However, for now, the gold price has neither broken below the 50SMA on the hourly chart nor fallen below $4,200. On the contrary, it has regained its footing at the Gann 180-degree angle support level of $4,210, rebounding to a high of $4,221. However, it is constrained by the pre-fall low of $4,221.76. From a 5-minute perspective, the gold price has encountered resistance twice at $4,221 and $4,219. Nevertheless, as long as it remains above $4,210, the gold price is still likely to fluctuate within the range of $4,210 to $4,260 during the day, preparing for a further challenge of $4,310. 

As seen from the daily chart, the correction since yesterday in New York is merely a consolidation after gold broke through the downtrend resistance last Friday. It has not changed the breakout pattern of gold. Even if gold erases all of last Friday's gains, as long as it does not close below last Friday's low of $4,157.15, the upward breakout signal remains valid. According to the current development, the chance of challenging the historical high of $4,381 before the end of this year, or even setting a new high, is still extremely high! 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.