Gold market analysis

"Gold Price at $4,110 Likely to Be the Intraday High" 20/11/2025 9:59 Completed 

Yesterday, the spot gold price hit a low of $4,055.75 in the early Asian session and then continued to strengthen. It reached a high of $4,132.89 near the midday of the New York session before peaking and falling back. From the hourly chart, the gold price mostly remained above the 20SMA (currently around $4,095.7) and continued to climb. However, after touching the daily high of $4,132.89, it formed a bearish engulfing pattern, indicating a short-term peak at that level. Subsequently, it fluctuated and declined, hitting a low of $4,055.58 before rebounding again. The maximum decline was slightly less than 50% of the largest increase since November 18. This morning, the gold price rebounded to $4,110.16 before falling back and is currently hovering below $4,100. 

Views on interest rates among Fed board members are sharply divided. 

Gold prices rebounded after the New York midday session yesterday, likely in response to the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's October interest rate meeting. The minutes revealed significant differences among FOMC members on interest rate decisions. While many participants supported a rate cut, some of those in favor also accepted keeping rates unchanged. Several members opposed a rate cut, expressing concerns over the stagnation in the progress towards the 2% inflation target and warning that if inflation fails to return to 2% in a timely manner, long-term inflation expectations could rise. 

In addition, most committee members pointed out that further lowering the policy interest rate might heighten the risk of persistently high inflation or be misinterpreted by the market as a lack of firm commitment by policymakers to achieve the 2% inflation target. The meeting minutes further reduced the probability of a rate cut in December by the Federal Reserve. According to CME's interest rate futures, the probability of a rate cut has dropped to 32.8%. Additionally, investors should note that the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced it will not release the October non-farm payroll report and will instead publish the November non-farm payroll report on December 16. 

$4,000 remains the target for the assault. 

As such, the non-farm payroll report to be released by the US Department of Labor tonight is unlikely to boost the gold price. In terms of technical trends, the high of $4,110.16 this morning is exactly the strong resistance at the 90-degree angle of Gann's theory. Therefore, it is judged that the top of the gold price has already emerged today. As a result, the gold price is expected to fluctuate between $4,110 and $4,060 within the day. However, the two recent significant rebounds have both reached lower highs. Measured by the TD line, if the gold price breaks through the ascending track, the target for the decline is $3,985, indicating a high probability that the gold price will fall below the $4,000 mark again. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.