Gold market analysis

Gold prices remained weak intraday on 17/11/2025 10:09. 

Last Friday, the price of gold plunged sharply, with the spot gold price fluctuating by more than 179 US dollars in a single day and closing down by more than 2%. Is gold a safe-haven asset at any time and at any price? The answer is now quite clear. Therefore, investors should not simply regard gold as a safe-haven or inflation-hedging tool. 

Low real interest rates in the US make it hard to cut interest rates further. 

Although the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, two council members dissented. Trump-appointed council member Milan suggested a 25 basis point cut, while another council member, Schmid, advocated for maintaining the interest rate. The U.S. inflation rate rose back to 3% in September. From an inflation perspective, there is not much justification for the rate cut. However, the Federal Reserve has shifted its focus to the weak job market. I think this is a bit excessive. The U.S. and the global economy have entered the AI era, and many jobs will inevitably be replaced. Unless job seekers transform, it is unlikely for them to return to jobs that have been or will be replaced by AI. Although the rate cut can squeeze out a little bit of consumer spending power, it has no effect on the price increase caused by a ten to tens of percent increase in tariffs. Currently, the real interest rate in the U.S. is less than 1%. It is quite normal for Federal Reserve Chair Powell to be uncertain about whether to cut rates in December. Asset prices that have been overvalued naturally need to adjust. 

Last Friday, the spot gold price dropped to a low of $4,032.47, even lower than my expected $4,046.21. Today, the gold price opened lower in the early Asian session and then rose. In the short term, $4,078 and $4,081 are seen as strong support levels. However, resistance is expected above $4,100. After the London close last Friday, the gold price reached a high of around $4,111 but faced strong pressure. Therefore, for the time being, it is judged that $4,111 is an important resistance level for the day. In other words, if the gold price breaks through this level, it is likely to trigger stop-loss orders or program buying, pushing it even higher. 

$4,110 is expected to be the intraday resistance. 

From the hourly chart, gold prices are constrained by the 20SMA (4119). After reaching a high of $4101.91 this morning, they were pressured, indicating that the first resistance was encountered at the 38.2% retracement level of the biggest decline since last Friday (4100.77). If the rebound reaches 50% and 61.8%, it could reach $4121.86 and $4142.86 respectively. The former is slightly above the 20SMA, while the latter is near the low point of last Thursday. Both are obvious technical resistances. Even though the US is expected to release the September non-farm payroll report this Thursday, the data is already lagging. Any market reaction to the deviated data will be short-lived. However, if the data shows an increase in employment positions, or even an increase of more than 100,000, gold prices will surely fall sharply again. Moreover, the daily chart of spot gold has shown a lower high, strengthening the signal of a decline. Spot gold is expected to maintain a weak trend within the day, and at most, it will fluctuate between $4110 and $4060. If it breaks down, it is expected to fall to around $4010 before finding support. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.