Gold market analysis

"Unusual Fluctuations in Gold Prices Signal a Breakthrough Ahead" 7/11/2025 8:44 Completed 

After entering the Tokyo afternoon session yesterday, the gold price exhibited highly volatile performance. It was clearly visible from the 1-minute chart that whenever the gold price rose to $3,990, it encountered strong selling pressure, which rapidly pushed it down by about $5. However, at the lower levels, there was also strong buying that pushed the gold price back up to $3,990. It is evident that the gold price is in a state of battle between bulls and bears. I believe that a major decline in the gold price is about to occur. However, when the London market opened, the gold price did not fall but rose instead, breaking through $3,990 and regaining the $4,000 mark. Even the 90-degree angle of the Gann Square at $4,010 was broken. Although there was some adjustment afterwards, the support at $4,000 was extremely strong. After reaching a low of $4,005, it climbed again and approached $4,020 just before and after the opening of the New York market. 

$4,000 gained and then lost 

However, after the New York market opened, selling pressure emerged. The gold price dropped below $4,003 and then resumed its upward trend. However, it encountered resistance at $4,016 and the trend continued to decline. The gold price fell back below $4,000, erasing the gains of several dozen dollars. It bottomed out at $3,966 in the New York midday session before rebounding again. At the end of the trading day, it rose to around $3,995 but failed to challenge the $4,000 mark again and fell once more. This morning in the early Asian session, it started to climb from the low of $3,975 but was temporarily constrained at $3,990. 

The daily chart of gold prices remains in a sideways range. The hourly chart is currently constrained by the 20SMA (3994.8). The recent volatile movement of gold prices actually reflects a strong bearish signal on the daily chart and the loss of the key psychological level of $4,000, which has shaken investors' confidence. The strategy is no longer to buy on dips as before. Especially with the possibility that the Fed may not cut interest rates in December, the easing of Sino-US trade frictions, the approaching end of the year, and the fact that spot gold prices have risen by more than 52% this year, a greater momentum is needed for further gains in the future. 

$3,960 is an important intraday support level. 

In the short term, the probability is high that the gold price will fluctuate below $4,010, with $3,960 likely to be an important support level for the day. The abnormal fluctuations from the early Tokyo midday session to the opening of the London market yesterday cannot be ignored. This is similar to what I witnessed on the last trading day of March 2000 when the USD/JPY experienced rapid fluctuations within a narrow range near the European midday session, followed by a sharp decline. Therefore, I judge that if today is a turning point for the gold price, the chance of a downward reversal is greater. Today is also the last trading day of the week, so it is not surprising if the gold price is preparing for a major breakthrough. Of course, I may be wrong, and risk management is essential for every mature investor! 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.