Gold market analysis

"Gold Price Trend Expected to Be Weak and Volatile" 3/11/2025 10:02 Finalized 

Gold prices opened lower with a gap on the first trading day of November and then fluctuated down to $3,962.92 before gradually recovering. Regardless of whether it can return above the $4,000 mark, it at least conforms to the pattern that gold prices have always fallen back below the thousand-dollar mark in the following month after breaking through it. From the perspective of Gann's Square, before gold prices rise above $4,000 or even break through $4,010, they tend to fluctuate between $3,910 and $3,960. However, $3,960 is not a major or minor resistance level, so if gold prices continue to rise, $4,110 is the first important resistance level. 

The technical outlook for gold prices remains bearish. 

From the hourly chart, gold prices peaked at $4,036.07 last Friday and then declined, showing a pattern of each wave being lower than the previous one. This morning's rebound is merely a recovery after forming the second trough. Besides the $4,000 mark, the 20SMA on the hourly chart ($4,004) is another significant resistance level for gold prices. Moreover, the top of the large bearish candle formed at the close of trading in London last Friday at $4,015.26 is also a crucial resistance level for gold prices in the immediate term. Looking at the daily chart, gold prices seem to be forming an ascending flag pattern, provided that they continue to hold above $3,915.17. However, technically, gold prices are currently below the 20-day SMA ($4,087.9), indicating a bearish trend until they regain and hold above the 20-day SMA. 

This week, it is expected to fluctuate between 3900 and 4000. 

After the meeting between the Chinese and US leaders in Busan, it has a positive impact on resolving the trade shock between the two countries. It is reported that the two sides may sign a trade agreement as early as this week. On the other hand, the shutdown of the US government departments has led to many important data not being released on time. Therefore, it is expected that the non-farm payroll report for October will not be released this Friday. In this case, the private institution ADP's release of the October private sector employment change data becomes an important employment report. Currently, the market expects an increase of 28,000, which is still a relatively low growth rate, but at least it is not a decrease! These factors are unfavorable for the gold price trend. Of course, there are other economic data released in the US this week, which are also expected to affect the gold price performance. Therefore, it is expected that the gold price trend this week will be mainly volatile and weak. If the ADP's employment position change returns to positive, the possibility of the gold price falling below $3,900 again this week is very high. 

Although gold prices recovered most of the lost ground this morning, they still dropped by about 10 dollars and saw selling pressure at the 4000-dollar mark. Measured by the TD line on the hourly chart, if gold prices break above the downtrend line, the upward target is approximately 4094 dollars. If they fall below the uptrend line, the measured downward target is about 3853 dollars. Before the release of the ADP's October employment report, gold prices are expected to be trapped between 3900 and 4000 dollars this week. If China and the United States announce a trade agreement later, gold prices are likely to fall below 3900 dollars. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. 

MTF Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu