Gold market analysis

"Gold Price Breaks 4200 in Short Term Unlikely" 14/10/2025 9:58 Completed 

Just last week, Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods. The Office of the United States Trade Representative also announced a Section 301 investigation into China's shipping industry not long ago. However, yesterday, Trump changed his tune, saying that he was just having a moment of emotional outburst. He doesn't want China to fall into depression and the United States wants to help China rather than hurt her. On the other hand, Beijing also stated that the export restrictions on rare earths and related equipment are not a complete ban and the impact on the global industrial chain is extremely limited. 

A daily fluctuation of over 100 points seems like a delivery price. 

However, gold prices continued to hit new highs regardless of whether they were considered a safe haven or not. After breaking through the $4,130 mark this morning, they pulled back to the $4,119 level where they found support. In the early Asian session, they once again pushed higher, reaching a temporary high of $4,149. It's worth noting that gold prices rose by more than $100 yesterday, with spot gold climbing by nearly $114 and the most active December gold futures on CME rising by more than $111. The sudden and significant expansion of the intraday gains in gold prices, with a daily swing of over $100, is the first time since the large-scale upward trend began in late August, and it has a strong flavor of year-end profit-taking. 

However, Bank of America expects the gold price to rise to $5,000 per ounce before 2026. In fact, not to mention a single-day increase of over $100, even at an average daily increase of $50, the target can be reached within 20 trading days. Michael Widmer, the head of commodities strategy at Bank of America, said that if investment demand increases by 14%, the gold price could challenge $5,000, and if it increases by 28%, it could even challenge $6,000. Is the current gold price high or low? When you look down, the gold price is at a high level; when you look up, it is at a low level. Cao Runchao once said, "It's better to follow the trend than to be wise." Whether it's a threat or an opportunity can only be known after the fact, but only by entering the market can one determine the outcome. Talking on paper is just a waste of time! 

The 20-hour SMA must not be violated. 

Based on the hourly chart analysis since October 2nd, the second round of the gold price rally that began on October 10th, if the increase is the same as the previous rally, it could reach $4,185.2. If the gold price broke through the resistance level of $4,059.31 on October 13th, the measured upward target would be $4,173.22. In other words, the short to medium-term chance of the gold price breaking through $4,200 is not high. Regarding the moving average lines, the 20-hour SMA (currently around $4,096) is a clear strong support. Once it closes below this line for three consecutive hours, it is expected that the gold price will undergo a deep adjustment, with a temporary downward target of $4,047. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. 

MTF Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu