Gold market analysis

"Mid-Term Top Signal for Gold Price Remains Valid" 13/10/2025 9:15 Completed 

The partial shutdown of some US government departments for nearly two weeks has forced about 750,000 civil servants to take unpaid leave. Economists estimate that this shutdown has caused about 6 billion US dollars in productivity losses and contract delays each week. The Democratic Party of the United States demands to extend the subsidies of the Affordable Care Act, which will expire on December 31, 2025, but the Republican Party insists on passing the appropriation bill first and then discussing other matters. So far, the two parties have not reached a consensus. Last Friday, the gold price continued to rise, following the upward trend of the previous day. The spot gold price in New York City continued to climb and finally returned above the 4,000 US dollar mark, closing at 4,017 US dollars. 

The trade friction between the United States and China influences the gold price. 

Gold prices have rebounded sharply, which is believed to be related to the renewed escalation of trade frictions between the United States and China. After China announced extensive global export controls on rare earth elements, the Trump administration retaliated. The Office of the United States Trade Representative announced the final measures of the Section 301 investigation into China's maritime, logistics and shipbuilding sectors. Among them, the measure of imposing port fees on relevant Chinese vessels will be officially implemented on October 14. 

In terms of geopolitics, NATO announced on Friday that it would start nuclear exercises this week, with more than ten countries and dozens of aircraft participating. NATO stated that the exercise is not targeted at any country or event. NATO officials said that the exercise will simulate scenarios where nuclear weapons might be used, but the weapons and equipment used in the exercise do not include nuclear weapons. On the other hand, the Russia-Ukraine war is still ongoing. Both sides are attacking each other's energy facilities. Russian oil refining facilities have become targets, while Ukraine's natural gas production facilities and energy infrastructure have also been damaged. 

There is significant resistance at $4,060 in the short term. 

Last Friday, spot gold prices found support at $3,945 and have been rebounding since. This morning, they rose sharply on the backdrop of escalating trade tensions between the US and China. In the early Asian session, they reached a high of $4,059.81 and then pulled back significantly to $4,024.77 before climbing again to $4,059.71, forming a double top pattern technically. From the hourly chart, it is evident that gold prices are encountering strong resistance at $4,060. Therefore, if gold prices break above $4,060, a sharp rally is likely. Currently, gold prices are still trapped between $4,010 and $4,060. The 1-minute chart is forming a double top pattern, and with the neckline at $4,024.77, a break below this level could see gold prices fall to $3,989.73 before stabilizing. Additionally, from the daily chart, the double-day reversal pattern that emerged on October 9th remains valid until gold prices close above $4,058.09 on the daily chart, indicating a medium-term top. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. 

MTF Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu