Gold market analysis

Gold prices will find support only when they fall to $3,810. 10:01 30/10/2025 Finalized 

I found that the gold price movement was one trading day ahead of my analysis. The gold price hit a low of $3,886.66 on Tuesday, which was about $40 higher than the central axis of the largest increase since August 20th, $3,846.44, as I pointed out on Monday. However, the gold price dropped continuously from the highest point of $4,019.4 to that level on Tuesday, falling by nearly $173. Therefore, it is understandable that the gold price has launched a strong rebound wave. 

The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision shows a three-way split. 

Before the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision yesterday, the gold price rose to a high of $4,029.74 and then fluctuated and fell below $4,000. After the Fed announced a 25 basis point rate cut, the gold price dropped to $3,979.43 and then rose to $4,007. It then fluctuated and fell. After the Asian market opened this morning, it rebounded from a low of $3,917.57. After the Tokyo market opened, it rose to a high of $3,966.52 but failed to rise further. It is currently supported at around $3,940. 

The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision was passed by a 10-2 vote at this meeting, but there was a three-way split. The new board member, Milan, continued to recommend a 50 basis point cut, while the Kansas City Fed's president, Schmidt, suggested keeping the rate unchanged. More committee members favored pausing rate cuts for at least "one cycle" (presumably meaning one meeting) to observe the cumulative effect of the rate cuts before making a decision. Regarding the U.S. economic performance, Powell indicated that economic growth was stronger than expected, but the job market was cooling. As for whether there would be a rate cut in December, he stated that it would depend on the economic data performance. At the same time, he pointed out that if the uncertainty remained extremely high at that time, the authorities would act cautiously. 

The current market is poised to break through 3910 on the downside. 

As the interest rate cut was expected and the possibility of a rate cut in December remains uncertain, the spot gold price, which was close to $4,000, came under pressure. In the early Asian session today, the price fluctuated, but generally remained within the Gann angle range of $3,910 to $3,960. From the hourly chart, it can be seen that the rebound high of the gold price yesterday was exactly the strong support level of $4,000 after the sharp drop on October 22. Therefore, when the price rebounded above this level yesterday, it encountered strong resistance. This morning, it fluctuated within a narrow range. The 5-minute chart shows a rare dense area, indicating that the gold price is likely to break below $3,910 again soon. It is expected to find support at the Gann level angle of $3,810, and $3,960 has become the main resistance for the day. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. 

MTF Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu