Gold market analysis

"Gold Price at $4,110 as Key Support" 24/10/2025 11:28 Finalized 

Gold prices rose above $4,110 as expected, but yesterday's gold prices showed no clear direction. Most of the short-term trends that should have occurred in the past did not materialize. Perhaps this is because the US will release the CPI for September tonight. The expected inflation rate is expected to expand from 2.9% in August to 3.1%. Although the Federal Reserve is almost certain to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, if the inflation rate returns above 3%, the dovish voices within the Federal Reserve are expected to be somewhat restrained. 

Short-term resistance at $4,160 

Yesterday, the gold price fluctuation narrowed slightly to around $89.5, with the high at $4,154.96 and the low at $4,065.49. In other words, the gold price fluctuated within the two Gann angles of $4,060 to $4,160 yesterday. However, it should be noted that neither of them is a significant or secondary support or resistance level. Therefore, the gold price is likely to break through either side in the short term. Looking upward, the $4,186 is the neckline of the previous double top on the hourly chart, and yesterday's high was about $31 away from it. Further upward, there is a strong resistance at $4,210. Thus, it is normal for the gold price to pull back slightly after breaking through $4,160. 

Looking at the hourly chart, the rebound from $4,004.34 is the largest since Monday, with a decline of more than 40%. The gold price has twice been blocked at around $4,155. Conversely, if it breaks through this level, the possibility of challenging $4,210 is very high. In fact, during the Tokyo midday session today, the gold price fell below $4,110, but the lowest point was $4,105.74, where there was a struggle. After that, the gold price broke through and rose sharply, reaching a high of nearly $4,120 before falling sharply again. It is currently supported at around $4,111. 

Next Monday will be the reversal day for gold prices. 

From the perspective of short-term cyclical trends, next Monday is the reversal day for gold prices. Assuming that the price moves upward, if the rebound reaches 50% of the largest decline since the historical high, it could rise to $4,192.88, which also meets the conditions for the end of the c-wave rebound. At that time, the gold price will fall sharply again. Currently, $4,110 is a key support level. Once it is breached, $4,000 will come under pressure again. The gold price has been trading above this level for more than two days. The longer the sideways movement lasts, the greater the selling pressure when it breaks through $4,000. A short-term fall to $3,500 is not out of the question. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. 

MTF Special Analyst Zheng Guangfu